Le Mans

P8 W1 D4 L3 · 11–16 −5

Participants

Arena shots modelArena xG — logisticArena xG — neighbourhoodOpta Analyst

Drawn on the plot below, in every match, and on the lines here.

What each participant thinks of this team, rather than whether it was right

The net value rate: its mean of value generated minus value conceded, which is the quantity the board differences between two sides to forecast a fixture. This is an opinion about the team rather than a record of being right, which is why it sits behind a fold. Each line is drawn to its own scale, because a shots rate and an xG rate are not points on one axis. Hover a point for what that match did to the line.

Arena shots model−5.50net value per match
Arena xG — logistic−0.52net value per match
Arena xG — neighbourhood−0.51net value per match
Opta Analystshare43%mean share of its matches
Matchday12345678

Expect a line to jump for four or five matches and then barely move: a running mean gets harder to shift as it lengthens. That is a property of the thing being scored, not a smoothing choice.

Did the signal call it — and did the scoreline?

One point per matchday: above the line the pre-match signal pointed at the winner, below it pointed the other way. Goal difference is the first row. The numbers on the right are what those points came to — and the second is the one that matters, because a call the scoreline also made was free. Pick a point for the match.

pointed at the winner
pointed the other way
a draw, or no signal yet
burn-in: shown, scores nothing

Goal differencethe baseline2of 3the reference

Arena shots model2of 30

Arena xG — logistic2of 30

Arena xG — neighbourhood2of 30

Opta Analystentered by the Arena3of 3+1

Matchday12345678

Called right counts only matches the board scores: a team’s first few are burn-in, drawn here and counting nowhere, and a draw has no winner to call. Vs the scoreline nets the disagreements — plus one where this row called a match goal difference got wrong, minus one where the reverse. Zero means it has told you nothing the league table had not. These are counts on one team, not a score; the same quantity over a season, with the interval that says whether it is real, is on the board.

1 of 8 matches

Matchday 1 · burn-in, scores nothing

Le Mans 2–2 Brest

Ligue 1 · home

A draw, so nobody had a winner to call and the fixture is out of right winner. What each row said instead is how far apart it put the two sides, against how far apart it usually does — and goal difference is 0.00 here by construction, a floor a scoreline can never beat.

Goal difference the baseline
Arena shots model
Arena xG — logistic
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Opta Analyst