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Atalanta

P8 W3 D1 L4 · 14–15 −1

Participants
Arena shots modelArena xG — logisticArena xG — neighbourhoodOpta Analyst

Drawn on the plot below, in every match, and on the lines here.

What each participant thinks of this team, rather than whether it was right

The net value rate: its mean of value generated minus value conceded, which is the quantity the board differences between two sides to forecast a fixture. This is an opinion about the team rather than a record of being right, which is why it sits behind a fold. Each line is drawn to its own scale, because a shots rate and an xG rate are not points on one axis. Hover a point for what that match did to the line.

  • Arena shots model−4.38net value per match
  • Arena xG — logistic−0.45net value per match
  • Arena xG — neighbourhood−0.40net value per match
  • Opta Analystshare37%mean share of its matches

Expect a line to jump for four or five matches and then barely move: a running mean gets harder to shift as it lengthens. That is a property of the thing being scored, not a smoothing choice.

Did the signal call it — and did the scoreline?

One point per matchday: above the line the pre-match signal pointed at the winner, below it pointed the other way. Goal difference is the first row. The numbers on the right are what those points came to — and the second is the one that matters, because a call the scoreline also made was free. Pick a point for the match.

  • pointed at the winner
  • pointed the other way
  • a draw, or no signal yet
  • burn-in: shown, scores nothing
Goal differencethe baseline4of 4the reference
Arena shots model3of 4-1
Arena xG — logistic3of 4-1
Arena xG — neighbourhood3of 4-1
Opta Analystentered by the Arena3of 4-1
Matchday12345678

Called right counts only matches the board scores: a team’s first few are burn-in, drawn here and counting nowhere, and a draw has no winner to call. Vs the scoreline nets the disagreements — plus one where this row called a match goal difference got wrong, minus one where the reverse. Zero means it has told you nothing the league table had not. These are counts on one team, not a score; the same quantity over a season, with the interval that says whether it is real, is on the board.

1 of 8 matches

Matchday 1 · burn-in, scores nothing

Atalanta 2–1 Sassuolo

Serie A · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
no rate yettoo early in the season
Arena shots model
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Arena xG — logistic
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Arena xG — neighbourhood
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Opta Analyst
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 2 · burn-in, scores nothing

Atalanta 1–0 Bologna

Serie A · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
Atalanta by 2.00pointed at the winner
Arena shots model
Bologna by 12.00pointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw
Arena xG — logistic
Bologna by 3.49pointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Bologna by 2.72pointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw
Opta Analyst
Bolognapointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 3 · burn-in, scores nothing

Roma 2–1 Atalanta

Serie A · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
Roma by 3.00pointed at the winner
Arena shots model
Roma by 17.00pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
Roma by 3.15pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Roma by 2.91pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
Romapointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 4

Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari

Serie A · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
no rate yettoo early in the season
Arena shots model
Cagliari by 13.67pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
Cagliari by 1.06pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Cagliari by 1.10pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
Cagliaripointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 5

Juventus 2–0 Atalanta

Serie A · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
Juventus by 0.50pointed at the winner
Arena shots model
Juventus by 20.00pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
Juventus by 2.13pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Juventus by 2.11pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
Juventuspointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 6

Atalanta 3–1 Venezia

Serie A · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
Atalanta by 1.40pointed at the winner
Arena shots model
Venezia by 7.00pointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw
Arena xG — logistic
Venezia by 0.19pointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Venezia by 0.27pointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw
Opta Analyst
Veneziapointed the other waymissed what the scoreline saw

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 7

AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta

Serie A · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
AC Milan by 1.00pointed at the winner
Arena shots model
AC Milan by 9.00pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
AC Milan by 1.27pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
AC Milan by 1.19pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
AC Milanpointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 8

Atalanta 4–4 Frosinone

Serie A · home

A draw, so nobody had a winner to call and the fixture is out of right winner. What each row said instead is how far apart it put the two sides, against how far apart it usually does — and goal difference is 0.00 here by construction, a floor a scoreline can never beat.

Goal difference the baseline
gap 0.00a drawn match has no goal difference
Arena shots model
gap 2.000.26× its usualmuch closer than it usually calls them
Arena xG — logistic
gap 2.492.51× its usualfurther apart than it usually calls them
Arena xG — neighbourhood
gap 2.362.47× its usualfurther apart than it usually calls them
Opta Analyst
share only — no gap published

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.