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FC Koln

P7 W2 D2 L3 · 8–11 −3

Participants
Arena shots modelArena xG — logisticArena xG — neighbourhoodOpta Analyst

Drawn on the plot below, in every match, and on the lines here.

What each participant thinks of this team, rather than whether it was right

The net value rate: its mean of value generated minus value conceded, which is the quantity the board differences between two sides to forecast a fixture. This is an opinion about the team rather than a record of being right, which is why it sits behind a fold. Each line is drawn to its own scale, because a shots rate and an xG rate are not points on one axis. Hover a point for what that match did to the line.

  • Arena shots model+1.00net value per match
  • Arena xG — logistic+0.10net value per match
  • Arena xG — neighbourhood+0.04net value per match
  • Opta Analystshare51%mean share of its matches

Expect a line to jump for four or five matches and then barely move: a running mean gets harder to shift as it lengthens. That is a property of the thing being scored, not a smoothing choice.

Did the signal call it — and did the scoreline?

One point per matchday: above the line the pre-match signal pointed at the winner, below it pointed the other way. Goal difference is the first row. The numbers on the right are what those points came to — and the second is the one that matters, because a call the scoreline also made was free. Pick a point for the match.

  • pointed at the winner
  • pointed the other way
  • a draw, or no signal yet
  • burn-in: shown, scores nothing
Goal differencethe baseline1of 3the reference
Arena shots model1of 30
Arena xG — logistic1of 30
Arena xG — neighbourhood1of 30
Opta Analystentered by the Arena1of 20
Matchday1234567

Called right counts only matches the board scores: a team’s first few are burn-in, drawn here and counting nowhere, and a draw has no winner to call. Vs the scoreline nets the disagreements — plus one where this row called a match goal difference got wrong, minus one where the reverse. Zero means it has told you nothing the league table had not. These are counts on one team, not a score; the same quantity over a season, with the interval that says whether it is real, is on the board.

3 of 7 matches

Matchday 1 · burn-in, scores nothing

FC Koln 3–2 Hoffenheim

Bundesliga · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
no rate yettoo early in the season
Arena shots model
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Arena xG — logistic
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Arena xG — neighbourhood
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Opta Analyst
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 2 · burn-in, scores nothing

Stuttgart 4–1 FC Koln

Bundesliga · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
FC Koln by 5.00pointed the other way
Arena shots model
FC Koln by 13.00pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
FC Koln by 1.85pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
FC Koln by 2.24pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
FC Kolnpointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 3 · burn-in, scores nothing

FC Koln 1–1 Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · home

A draw, so nobody had a winner to call and the fixture is out of right winner. What each row said instead is how far apart it put the two sides, against how far apart it usually does — and goal difference is 0.00 here by construction, a floor a scoreline can never beat.

Goal difference the baseline
gap 0.00a drawn match has no goal difference
Arena shots model
gap 1.000.13× its usualmuch closer than it usually calls them
Arena xG — logistic
gap 0.720.72× its usualabout as far apart as usual
Arena xG — neighbourhood
gap 0.470.50× its usualmuch closer than it usually calls them
Opta Analyst
share only — no gap published

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 4

Hamburg 2–1 FC Koln

Bundesliga · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
FC Koln by 3.33pointed the other way
Arena shots model
FC Koln by 9.67pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
FC Koln by 1.56pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
FC Koln by 1.39pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 5

FC Koln 2–1 Borussia M.Gladbach

Bundesliga · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
FC Koln by 1.75pointed at the winner
Arena shots model
FC Koln by 3.50pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
FC Koln by 1.35pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
FC Koln by 1.12pointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
FC Kolnpointed at the winneragreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 6

Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FC Koln

Bundesliga · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
FC Koln by 1.00pointed the other way
Arena shots model
FC Koln by 6.20pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
FC Koln by 0.86pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
FC Koln by 0.56pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
FC Kolnpointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 7

FC Koln 0–0 Schalke

Bundesliga · home

A draw, so nobody had a winner to call and the fixture is out of right winner. What each row said instead is how far apart it put the two sides, against how far apart it usually does — and goal difference is 0.00 here by construction, a floor a scoreline can never beat.

Goal difference the baseline
gap 0.00a drawn match has no goal difference
Arena shots model
gap 5.000.65× its usualabout as far apart as usual
Arena xG — logistic
gap 0.380.39× its usualmuch closer than it usually calls them
Arena xG — neighbourhood
gap 0.380.40× its usualmuch closer than it usually calls them
Opta Analyst
share only — no gap published

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.