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Werder Bremen

P7 W3 D3 L1 · 15–14 +1

Participants
Arena shots modelArena xG — logisticArena xG — neighbourhoodOpta Analyst

Drawn on the plot below, in every match, and on the lines here.

What each participant thinks of this team, rather than whether it was right

The net value rate: its mean of value generated minus value conceded, which is the quantity the board differences between two sides to forecast a fixture. This is an opinion about the team rather than a record of being right, which is why it sits behind a fold. Each line is drawn to its own scale, because a shots rate and an xG rate are not points on one axis. Hover a point for what that match did to the line.

  • Arena shots model−1.29net value per match
  • Arena xG — logistic+0.10net value per match
  • Arena xG — neighbourhood+0.16net value per match
  • Opta Analystshare44%mean share of its matches

Expect a line to jump for four or five matches and then barely move: a running mean gets harder to shift as it lengthens. That is a property of the thing being scored, not a smoothing choice.

Did the signal call it — and did the scoreline?

One point per matchday: above the line the pre-match signal pointed at the winner, below it pointed the other way. Goal difference is the first row. The numbers on the right are what those points came to — and the second is the one that matters, because a call the scoreline also made was free. Pick a point for the match.

  • pointed at the winner
  • pointed the other way
  • a draw, or no signal yet
  • burn-in: shown, scores nothing
Goal differencethe baseline0of 2the reference
Arena shots model0of 20
Arena xG — logistic0of 20
Arena xG — neighbourhood0of 20
Opta Analystentered by the Arena0of 10
Matchday1234567

Called right counts only matches the board scores: a team’s first few are burn-in, drawn here and counting nowhere, and a draw has no winner to call. Vs the scoreline nets the disagreements — plus one where this row called a match goal difference got wrong, minus one where the reverse. Zero means it has told you nothing the league table had not. These are counts on one team, not a score; the same quantity over a season, with the interval that says whether it is real, is on the board.

6 of 7 matches

Matchday 1 · burn-in, scores nothing

Freiburg 4–1 Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
no rate yettoo early in the season
Arena shots model
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Arena xG — logistic
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Arena xG — neighbourhood
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it
Opta Analyst
no standing rate yet — too few matches behind it

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 2 · burn-in, scores nothing

Werder Bremen 3–1 RBL

Bundesliga · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
RBL by 6.00pointed the other way
Arena shots model
RBL by 20.00pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
RBL by 4.11pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
RBL by 4.36pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
RBLpointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 3 · burn-in, scores nothing

FC Koln 1–1 Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · away

A draw, so nobody had a winner to call and the fixture is out of right winner. What each row said instead is how far apart it put the two sides, against how far apart it usually does — and goal difference is 0.00 here by construction, a floor a scoreline can never beat.

Goal difference the baseline
gap 0.00a drawn match has no goal difference
Arena shots model
gap 1.000.13× its usualmuch closer than it usually calls them
Arena xG — logistic
gap 0.720.72× its usualabout as far apart as usual
Arena xG — neighbourhood
gap 0.470.50× its usualmuch closer than it usually calls them
Opta Analyst
share only — no gap published

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 4

Werder Bremen 3–2 Augsburg

Bundesliga · home

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
Augsburg by 2.33pointed the other way
Arena shots model
Augsburg by 1.33pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
Augsburg by 0.73pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Augsburg by 0.42pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 5

Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · away

A draw, so nobody had a winner to call and the fixture is out of right winner. What each row said instead is how far apart it put the two sides, against how far apart it usually does — and goal difference is 0.00 here by construction, a floor a scoreline can never beat.

Goal difference the baseline
gap 0.00a drawn match has no goal difference
Arena shots model
gap 10.001.31× its usualabout as far apart as usual
Arena xG — logistic
gap 1.361.37× its usualabout as far apart as usual
Arena xG — neighbourhood
gap 1.291.35× its usualabout as far apart as usual
Opta Analyst
share only — no gap published

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 6

Werder Bremen 2–2 Paderborn

Bundesliga · home

A draw, so nobody had a winner to call and the fixture is out of right winner. What each row said instead is how far apart it put the two sides, against how far apart it usually does — and goal difference is 0.00 here by construction, a floor a scoreline can never beat.

Goal difference the baseline
gap 0.00a drawn match has no goal difference
Arena shots model
gap 7.000.92× its usualabout as far apart as usual
Arena xG — logistic
gap 1.721.73× its usualfurther apart than it usually calls them
Arena xG — neighbourhood
gap 2.092.19× its usualfurther apart than it usually calls them
Opta Analyst
share only — no gap published

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.

Matchday 7

Mainz 2–3 Werder Bremen

Bundesliga · away

What each row said before kick-off, read against the one the board measures them against.

Goal difference the baseline
Mainz by 0.67pointed the other way
Arena shots model
Mainz by 6.50pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — logistic
Mainz by 0.93pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Arena xG — neighbourhood
Mainz by 0.62pointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline
Opta Analyst
Mainzpointed the other wayagreed with the scoreline

The whole match · one fixture settles nothing: these are the ingredients of a published column, and the judgement is on the board.