Transfers · players

Was anyone right about him?

Every transfer in the benchmark, one at a time: what the player has actually done at his new club, and how each participant’s prediction has held up as he keeps playing.

877 cases

Felix Gebhardt

GK · 24 · Swiss Super League

J. RegensburgFC Lugano

free · 2026-07-01 · 26/27

Appearances
2
Last observed
2026-09-16
Predictions

+0.067

skill score on this case

Scored on
2 appearances
Knew at lock
2 played
Metricsaves1 / 3
Share of his 2 appearances in each bandwhat happenedleague averagepredicted
0-1
2-3
4-5
6+
Hover or focus a band for the numbers behind it.

saves per match · axis to 60%

Skill score, week by weekleague base rate
+0.067arena-gemini-3.7-flash after 6 scored weeksabove 0 beats the league base rate

Early. 2 appearances is not yet enough to read a shape into — the distribution will move substantially with each match he plays.

Scored from 2026-07-25, which is before this participant locked on 2026-10-09 — so its line begins earlier than its answer did. Recorded at submission with its reason: Swiss Super League added mid-season on 9 October 2026 and scored from matchday one by the product owner's decision; web search bounded to 24 July 2026, the eve of round one; every retrieved page archived; the row publishes its skill before and after the lock.

Link to this card · the leaderboard · how scoring works