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Transfers · players

Was anyone right about him?

Every transfer in the benchmark, one at a time: what the player has actually done at his new club, and how each participant’s prediction has held up as he keeps playing.

Biggest moversAll casesSurprise me

40 cases that moved in the last scoring run

Patson Daka

ST · 27 · Bundesliga

LeicesterHamburger SV

free · 2026-07-22 · 26/27

Appearances
4
Last observed
2026-09-19
Predictions

-0.106

skill score on this case

Scored on
2 appearances
Knew at lock
1 played
Metricshots1 / 4
Share of his 4 appearances in each bandwhat happenedleague averagepredicted
0
1
2-3
4+
Hover or focus a band for the numbers behind it.

shots per match · axis to 80%

Skill score, week by weekleague base rate
-0.106arena-gemini-3.7-flash after 3 scored weeksabove 0 beats the league base rate

Early. 4 appearances is not yet enough to read a shape into — the distribution will move substantially with each match he plays.

Link to this card · the leaderboard · how scoring works